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Meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center have forecasted somewhat different weather this winter compared to 2023. While last year’s forecast consisted of cold and snowy weather for much of the country, this winter season is expected to be drier and warmer in the southern and eastern regions of the country, and cooler and wetter in the northern states.
Each season, NOAA releases its 3-month outlook about drought and the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above, near, or below average. “Seasonal outlooks help communities prepare for what is likely to come in the months ahead and minimize weather’s impacts on lives and livelihoods,” says the NOAA website. The recent winter forecast covers December, January, and February, known as a meteorological winter.
Keep reading to discover the main driver of this year’s La Niña winter forecast and what to expect, depending on where you live.
NOAA predicts a weak La Niña.
As one of the main drivers of weather in the United States, La Niña is a natural climate pattern that occurs when ocean water cools at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit below average for 3 months in a row. Cooler-than-average water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean works together with strengthening easterly trade winds in a feedback loop that affects ocean temperatures, winds, and rainfall. Although minor, this shift in temperature can surprisingly trigger significant changes in weather globally.
La Niña typically occurs during the late fall, winter, and early spring, and is most likely to impact winter weather. NOAA believes there is a 60 percent chance that La Niña will arrive by the end of November this year, causing drier and warmer conditions in the South and cooler, wetter weather in the North. This phenomenon is expected to remain throughout the winter and persist into at least early spring of next year.
NOAA anticipates that La Niña will be weaker and shorter in duration than in previous years. This could make it more challenging to forecast weather up to months in advance, since the strength of La Niña matters when it comes to influencing weather patterns. In fact, experts are concerned that a weaker-than-average La Niña will lead to inconsistent weather changes varying from week to week rather than periods of consistent weather.
Expect the opposite weather pattern from last year.
The weather last year was quite different from what is predicted for this winter. The main reason for this is that last year, El Niño dominated. This powerful weather pattern, which occurs every 2 to 7 years, entails sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean being warmer than average. As a result, the 2023 to 24 winter season ranked warmest on record for the contiguous United States, including eight states across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast that experienced their warmest winter on record.
Specific regional predictions vary.
Wondering what the weather will be like where you live during this La Niña winter? Here are NOAA’s predictions by region so you can prepare accordingly. Keep in mind that the forecast released doesn’t predict snowfall since that will depend on the strength and track of winter storms, which generally can’t be forecasted more than a week in advance. However, a weak La Niña tends to spur more snow in the Northeast and could lead to more snow in the Pacific Northwest as well.
Pacific Northwest: Wetter-than-average conditions and below-average temperatures are expected. In addition, drought conditions are expected to improve or end, especially in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.
Alaska: Wetter-than-average conditions overall are expected. The northern part of the state can expect warmer-than-average temperatures and the southern part below-average temperatures.
Great Plains: States in the high plains—including Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, the western part of Minnesota, and northern Wyoming—should see below-average temperatures. Moderate to extreme drought conditions are expected to persist.
Midwest: Above-average precipitation might occur in this region, especially in Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky.
Southwest: Anticipate drier-than-average conditions and that drought will likely develop or worsen.
Gulf Coast: This region should see drier-than-average conditions, warmer-than-average temperatures, and drought that is likely to develop or worsen. Texas, specifically, is expected to experience warmer-than-average temperatures and drier-than-average conditions.
Great Lakes: Look for warmer-than-average temperatures, especially in the eastern part of the region, wetter-than-average conditions, and drought conditions that improve or end.
Northeast: Expect warmer-than-average temperatures.
Mid-Atlantic: The Mid-Atlantic region may see drier-than-average conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures.
Southeast: Anticipate drier-than-average conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures.
